Monday, June 15, 2020

Ways to reopen

Here are predictions of the trajectory of the pandemic in NYC under different approaches for reopening. The charts show daily deaths, with the total death count at the every end. In each chart, we repeated the data series under different levels of testing capacity per day. After June 1, we switch to different levels of relaxation in social distancing norms -- as measured against the NY Pause measures. In particular, 0% means keeping the social distancing norms as in NY Pause, 100% means going back to pre-NY Pause norms. According to our model, to put it extremely vaguely, we cannot afford to be relaxed more than somewhere halfway between pre- and in-Pause norms. Otherwise, a bad second wave looms. Naturally, one wonders what does it mean to be halfway between pre- and in-NY Pause social distancing norms.

3 phases:

4 phases:

2 phases:

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