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| Total deaths by the end of September |
Saturday, June 13, 2020
Tradeoffs between social distancing norms and casualties
Below are efficient frontiers that show the tradeoff between the total number of deaths in NYC by September and the relaxation in social distancing norms. The efficient frontiers are repeated under different levels of testing capacity. To interpret the social distancing norms, 0% relaxation means keeping the norms as in NY Pause, whereas 100% relaxation means going back to pre-NY Pause norms as in before March 22. The efficient frontiers are constructed under the assumption that all new social distancing norms come into effect on June 1. Before that, we stick to NY Pause social distancing norms. Whenever we adopt a social distancing norm, we stick to it until September. Some analysis on gradually relaxing social distancing norms will follow.
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